Litigation Management

Collegium Ramazzini Asbestos Report Published

Authors:	Elizabeth Juliano
	James Fell

The Collegium Ramazzini is a prestigious international organization of physicians, scientists, and others committed to the study of occupational and environmental health. Founded in 1982 by asbestos and industrial health physician, Dr. Irving Selikoff, the nonprofit Collegium is now composed of members from 30 countries and is governed by 180 elected Fellows. Further information regarding the Collegium and its activities can be located at www.collegiumramazzini.org.

A group of Collegium Fellows, described as experts in asbestos hazards, have prepared a report, "Call for an International Ban on Asbestos." The Collegium Ramazzini recently released this publication in support of its stance which calls for worldwide cessation of asbestos mining and use of asbestos products. The report has been published in the March 2000 issue of the journal, Environmental Epidemiology and Toxicology, distributed by the Stockton Press, www.stockton-press.co.uk. The text in its entirety can also be viewed online at www.nature.com/eet.

When reviewing the Collegium’s report, one can observe how limited medical and epidemiologic research has become over the last ten years in its forecasting of rates for asbestos-related diseases. A number of references cited by the Collegium are over five years old. Only one study, Peto et al. (1999), could be said to offer asbestos-related disease projections based on contemporary data for industrialized nations. However, this single reference alone should be of concern to corporations and insurers for its serious revelations.

Approximately 250,000 Western European males are expected to die of mesothelioma over the next 35 years. – Peto et al. (1999)

Peto et al. forecast the incidence of mesothelioma deaths in Western European males for the years 1995-2029 and predicted a total of 250,000 fatalities for this time period. In particular, the 1945-50 male birth cohort is expected to suffer from a 1 in 150 rate of mesothelioma deaths. This gloomy prophecy becomes especially worrisome when additional deaths stemming from other asbestos-related conditions, such as asbestosis, are considered. An abstract of this article is available at www.harcourt-international.com/journals/bjoc/previous.cfm?art+bjoc.1998.0105.

Readers may also want to consult two other analyses not mentioned in the Collegium’s report, but which also contain predictions for the future incidence of asbestos-related diseases. Using incidence data for the period 1973-92 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER), Price (1997) constructed a model which forecasts a decline in mesothelioma cases for U.S. males beginning around the year 2000. This decrease would appear to stabilize at approximately 500 background cases through the mid-century. An earlier article by Peto et al. (1995) predicted the incidence of mesothelioma deaths in British males. Annual mesothelioma deaths for British males were expected to peak at 1,300 to 2,020 sometime between the years 2010 and 2020.

Studies projecting the incidence of asbestos-related diseases in developing or newly industrialized nations are grossly insufficient. The Collegium’s report cites only a few analyses for non-Western countries. Likewise, current estimations for any nation projecting the future incidence of non-mesothelioma asbestos-related diseases, i.e. asbestosis, are extremely limited.

Clearly, there is a need for renewed epidemiologic investigations into the nature and incidence of asbestos-related diseases beyond Y2000. While it is doubtful that an international ban on the production and use of asbestos products will be imposed anytime soon, hopefully the Collegium Ramazzini report will help stimulate renewed research into the future prevention of asbestos-related diseases.

Return back to articles page.